Central European PMI Divergence and Softer Polish Inflation Cap Zloty Gains

Mixed PMI data and softer inflation in Poland have limited zloty gains amid expectations of above 3% growth and modest rate-cut pricing by the National Bank of Poland.

Diverging Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) signals across Central Europe have kept the Polish zloty range-bound, with stronger sentiment in the Czech Republic contrasting with weaker readings in Poland, according to Frantisek Taborsky at ING, as reported by FX Street.

Polish economic growth is forecast to exceed 3% in 2026, supporting a positive outlook despite softer inflation data. This moderation in inflation has contributed to expectations of a dovish stance from the National Bank of Poland, reflected in modest market pricing for rate cuts.

For Japanese investors, these developments highlight the nuanced economic conditions in Central Europe, which may influence FX and equity exposures amid shifting monetary policies in the region.

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執筆: Sama Kane